The effect of orbital forcing of climate in southeastern Europe can be demonstrated using climate models. Multiple linear regression models (here of the LR04 stack, obliquity and precession; Laskar et al., 2004; Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) are rather simple models which may be used for the estimation of factors influencing dust deposition resulting in loess formation and pedogenesis in loess. Available data for the last 440 ka from loess is limited to magnetic susceptibility datasets in the area (Basarin et al., 2014; Marković et al., 2012). These data indicate a dominant contribution of global or northern hemisphere climate (here represented by the LR04 benthic isotope stack; (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). Depending on using either the Marković 2012 or Basarin 2014 time scale obliquity (M2012) or precession (B2014) are significant orbital contributors, where the other parameter does not contribute significantly at 95% confidence level.
However, such models consistently fail to reach a baseline as observed in proxy data for soil formation in loess. This is due to the lack of such baselines in input data, requiring more sophisticated models clipping input data at least at its base. Applying regression models including an optimisation of fit (using the Spearman rank correlation to allow for some nonlinearity) is used to adjust base lines.
Results from such models show clear discrepancies of proxy data on the time scales by Basarin et al. (2014); or Marković et al. (2012), more in the timing of events than in magnitude and patterns and especially for MIS7, suggesting that models may also be used for iterative time scale adjustment.
Basarin, B., Buggle, B., Hambach, U., Marković, S.B., Dhand, K.O., Kovačević, A., Stevens, T., Guo, Z., Lukić, T., 2014. Time-scale and astronomical forcing of serbian loess-palaeosol sequences. Glob. Planet. Change 122, 89–106. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.007
Bosmans, J.H.C., Drijfhout, S.S., Tuenter, E., Hilgen, F.J., Lourens, L.J., 2014. Response of the North African summer monsoon to precession and obliquity forcings in the EC-Earth GCM. Clim. Dyn. 44, 279–297. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2260-z
Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A.C.M., Levrard, B., 2004. A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth. Astron. Astrophys. 428, 261–285. doi:10.1051/0004-6361:20041335
Lisiecki, L.E., Raymo, M.E., 2005. A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records. Paleoceanography 20, PA1003. doi:10.1029/2004PA001071
Marković, S.B., Hambach, U., Stevens, T., Basarin, B., O’Hara-Dhand, K., Gavrilov, M.M., Gavrilov, M.B., Smalley, I., Teofanov, N., 2012. Relating the Astronomical Timescale to the Loess–Paleosol Sequences in Vojvodina, Northern Serbia, in: Berger, A., Mesinger, F., Sijacki, D. (Eds.), Climate Change. Springer Vienna, Vienna, pp. 65–78.
Zeeden, C., Hambach, U., Bosmans, J., Markovic, S., Obreht, I., Kaboth, S., Lehmkuhl, F. (2016): Modelling causes of loess-paleosol formation in the Carpathian Basin. Loess2M - Modelling & Mapping. 26-29.8. 2016, Novi Sad, Serbia.
|Authors||Zeeden, C and Hambach, U and Bosmans, J and Markovic, S.B. and Obreht, I and Kaboth, S and Lehmkuhl, F|
|Title||Modelling causes of loess-paleosol formation in the Carpathian Basin|
|Organization||Loess2M - Modelling & Mapping. 26-29.8. 2016, Novi Sad, Serbia.|